BC Housing Market Recovering From 2012 Slowdown

For immediate release -  Vancouver, BC – June 14, 2013.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association

(BCREA) reports that a total of 7,664 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during May, down 0.7%  from May of 2012.

Total sales dollar volume was 2 % higher at $4.1 billion.

The average MLS® residential price in the province was $534,013, up 2.7% from a year ago.

“BC home sales continued to trend higher in May,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “In contrast to slowing demand and moderating prices in 2012, the BC housing market is turning around.”

Rising consumer demand combined with inventory levels that remain in check has moved the province’s largest markets into balanced territory. “Home prices have edged higher over the past three months in BC’s large Lower Mainland market,”added Muir.

The MLS® Home Price Composite Index for the Lower Mainland was up 0.2% over the past month, and 1.4% over the past three months.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 12.2% to $14.9 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were down 10.7% to 28,140 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 1.7 % to $530,936.

Click on: BC Housing Market Recovering From 2012 Slowdown report to see the full stats.

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For immediate release: BCREA 2013 Second Quarter Housing Forecast
Transition Year Expected for BC Housing Market

Vancouver, BC – May 9, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales 
are forecast to edge up 1.9 per cent to 68,900 units this year, before increasing a further 6.5 per cent to 73,400 units in 2014. -year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

“Stricter mortgage credit regulation combined with slower economic growth has kept BC home sales at a cyclical low over the past three quarters,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, a faster growing economy is expected during the second half of the year and through 2014 which will support a growth trend in provincial housing demand.”

“The BC average home price forecast is revised upward for 2013, from a decline of 1 per cent to remaining unchanged, as result of stronger than expected market conditions in Vancouver,” added Muir.  The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast at $515,800 this year, before rising 1.7 per cent to $524,500 in 2014.

In short, the Vancouver market looks to have more sales and a slight increase in prices going forward.

Further Reading

Download the Vancouver Forecast, Economic Outlook, Housing Starts, Mortgage Rate Forecast & Vancouver Stats 

Download the full PDF version of: BCREA: 2nd Quarter Housing Report

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For immediate release 

Vancouver, BC – April 15, 2013.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports
that a total of 5,661 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during March, up 6.6 per cent from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, but down 17.7 per cent compared to March 2012.

Total sales dollar volume was down 18.5 per cent to $3.06 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $540,662, up 2 per cent from February, but down 1 per cent from a year ago.

“BC home sales in March posted the largest seasonally adjusted month-to-month increase since January 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, homes sale per capita continue to remain near a cyclical low, suggesting that pent-up demand may be beginning to grow in the housing market.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 22.1 per cent to $7.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 18.8 per cent to 13,572 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 4.0 per cent at $530,435.

Click on: The Complete BCREA News Release, to get detailed statistics. 

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BC Home Sales Remain Subdued but Stable

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,410 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during January, up 1.8% from December on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, but down 13.6% compared to January 2012.

Total sales volume increased 3.8% SA, but declined 16% from the same month last year.

The average MLS® residential price in the province was $514,134, up 3.2% from December, however, down
2.7% from a year ago.

“Despite a modest uptick in consumer demand last month, home sales have remained relatively stable at a noticeably lower level since last August,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Continuing low mortgage
interest rates combined with an easing back of home prices in some areas is expected to trend home sales higher during the spring and summer months.”

“The ratio of home sales to new listings is indicative of a balanced market at 42%,” added Muir. “However, there remains a backlog of existing home listings to either sell or be pulled off the market before supply and demand can be considered in check.”

Dramatic swings in average price statistics caused by a surge and subsequent pullback in luxury home sales appear to be near an end. The year-over-year change in average prices now more closely reflects the home price indices in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

Click on The BCREA news release, to read the full report including detailed statistics.

Contact me, If you would like to know how today's press release effects the value of your current home or the one's you are looking to buy. 

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MORTGAGE RATES TO STAY FLAT

The British Columbia Real Estate Association published their Mortgage Rate Forecast this morning.  In a nutshell they are predicting a flat rate for the first two quarters and then a slight rise.

Click on: BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast to read the full report.

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BCREA - BC Home Sales Pulled Lower by Vancouver/Fraser Valley

British Columbia Real Estate Association - November Real Estate Stat show a downward trend year to date and compared to November 2011 year.  

Stats at a glance from the news release:

 BC Wide Compared to Nov 2011

• Dollar value down 24.6%
• Number of Sales down 17%
• Price down 9.1%

Greater Vancouver Compared To Nov 2011

• Dollar value down 32.2%
• Average Price down 6.3%
• Price down 6.7%

BC Wide Year To Date Vs. 2011 Year To Date

• Dollar Value down 18.7%
• Number of Sales down 11%
• Price down 8.6%

What does it mean?

The numbers in the report are for very large areas and Real Estate is a very local business so don't try to apply the percentages you see in the report to your own property or to the one you want to buy.  You need to look at the dollar values, number of sales, and price change percentages of exact type of property in the exact place you live or want to live.

If you have a home to sell and you want to buy a new one, especially if the new one will be more expensive, then you might want to wait to see what happens as it's the net difference in the two transactions that matters.  The reward could be a smaller difference between the two transactions.  The risk is that the Spring market takes off and you lose your advantage.

Tired of doing it all yourself?  Let me do it all for you.

Sign up on my site and I'll keep an eye on the market for you.  Fill in my Free Home Evaluation form and I'll do a Competitive Market Analysis and tell your what your home is worth in your area in today's market.  Want to know what's available before the general public?  Sign up and I'll send the the latest listings that match your criteria.  Need anything else?  Send me an email or give me a call and I'll do my best to help you out.

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What do Vancouver’s November Real Estate Stats Mean To You?

Note: Prices have been falling since April/May.

Stats At A Glance

To read the full report, Click on the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's November Media package.

Things to note

• Sales in November were 30.3% below the 10 year sales average
• It was the second slowest November in sales in the last 12 years
• The Benchmark price has fallen 4.5% since it peaked in May
• 11% of all homes on the market in November sold which is the same as October
• New listings were 12.9% below the 10 year average
• Home prices in Greater Vancouver have generally declined between 3% and 5.5%, depending on property type, since reaching a peak 6 months ago
• 49.6% of the homes sold in GRVD were $600,000 or less (1,321 Detached, 5,039 Condo, 1,419 Townhomes)
• 16% of Greater Vancouver homes sold for $1,000,000 or more
• Home prices for Townhomes peaked in April
• Home prices for Detached and Apartment's peaked in May

What does it mean?

A lot less sales coupled with 3-5.5% decline in prices = a buyers market.  

Prices have been going down since June and I expect for them to go continue to down in the foreseeable future.  

For Buyers:

If you don't need a new home right away, taking a wait and see attitude could be the best idea right now.  No one knows when the prices will bottom out, but they already have created some good bargains if you know what you are looking for.  

Get pre-approved so you know how much money you have to spend and so you can act quickly when the right property comes down to the right price.  

Hire good Realtor® who knows the market, like me, to watch the properties you are interested so you know as soon as they change their price.  You don't want to be disappointed if someone else gets there before you. 

For Sellers:

Most buyers are not going to pay more than your home's assessed value and that number is probably going to go down when the new assessments come out in January.

Homes in Greater Vancouver are taking 61 days on average to sell in Greater Vancouver.  Depending on the type or your home, where it is, and how it shows, it might take even longer.   Now, more than ever, you are going to have to present your home very well, make it available for showings and most importantly price your home correctly.  

Reducing your price as the market goes down is called 'Chasing the Market'. When you do that, you are most likely going to have to settle for less than you would have if you had priced your home correctly in the first place and it will take longer to sell.

Home prices are falling.  If you need to sell, don't wait, put your home on the market right now at the right price.  If you don't need to sell, don't put it on the market to 'see if anyone buys' because that will result in more fuel for more price reductions.  

You need a new Competitive Market Analysis (AKA a Comparative Market Analysis or a CMA), done in the last 30 days to properly price your home.  I'll be happy to help you with that if you don't currently have a Realtor®.  Just fill in my my Free Home Evaluation form.  

Overpriced used to mean overlooked.  Overpriced now means won't sell.

For people who have both a home to sell and one to buy:  

Read the For Buyers and For Sellers sections.

It's the net between the two transactions that matters.  If you are moving up, the % decrease in the more expensive home will be more money than the % decrease in you have to take on your current home. Don't get caught up in trying to win on both sides of the transaction as it rarely happens.  

Start looking for your new home right away so you’re not caught up in the 'I have to have a new home today' syndrome and so you know what your net will probably be, but don't wait to put your home on the market as most people in Vancouver still won't accept a 'Contingent on selling my current home' offer. 

Will prices continue to drop and by how much?

No one knows for sure, but as long as people don't have to sell, they have jobs, the interest rates stay stable and more people want to move to Vancouver, the prices will go up again.  

The BCREA forecasts sales down 9.8% in 2012 but up 8.3% in 2013 and that prices will decline by 7.6%... "largely the result of luxury home sales returning to more normal levels after an unusually active 2011" - Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist . 

My personal opinion is that housing prices will continue to drop in the near future.  I don't see any economic reasons to expect 10% or greater drops in prices.  

This Months Further Reading

Flaherty ‘happy’ he helped soften Canada’s housing market - Huffington Post Dec 3

Vancouver Real Estate: Housing Resales Fall By 22.8 Per Cent - Huffington Post November 30

Low house prices not all bad news, CIBC says - CBC News November 29

Vancouver homes most expensive in Canada: survey - CTV News November 28

If you want to know what your home is worth in today’s market and you don't currently have a Realtor®, fill in my Free Home Evaluation form or give me a call.

If you have any questions or if I can help in any way, please give me a call, drop me an email.  

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It's great when I can provide a little extra to my clients.  I've just partnered with TELUS and negotiated a 40% discount on new activations of Telus TV and Internet. 

What's do you get?

• A 40% discount on new TV and Internet hookup for 1 full year (Approximately $550/Year)
• VIP Service from Telus
• A single point of contact for all things Telus  

What do I get?

• A 40% discount on TV and Internet (Approximately $550/Year)
• VIP Service from Telus
• A single point of contact for all things Telus 

How Do You Take Advantage Of The 40% Discount?

• Become my client by using me to sell your home or to buy your new home
• Let me know that you want to use the discount and I'll provide Telus with your: 
• Full Name:
• Phone number:
• Address:
• Completion Date:
• TELUS will contact you on my behalf to help you choose the right package, apply the discount and schedule an installation. This information will not be used for any other purpose and will be destroyed upon order completion.

In the meantime, download the current TELUS TV Packages: Optik Channel Selection.pdf

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Vancouver's Leaky Condos

Everyone seems to have heard of the famous leaky condos in Vancouver. The media was all over the story from the early 90's until around 2008. Since then, the stories are few and far between.

What you need to know:

1. Be cautious of condos built between 1982-1999.

2. The problems didn't show up until the 90's because it took 8-10 years for rot to set in.

3. The building codes changed in 2000 to address the problem

4. The Home Owner Protection act handled claims, but.. 'Effective July 31, 2009, the Minister of Housing and Social Development announced that the Reconstruction Program has stopped accepting new applications.'

5. On April 1,2010 responsibility was transferred to the Ministry of Finance

6. Registered leaky condos across B.C.: 900 buildings, 31,037 individual units (1)

7. Estimate of the total number of affected units: 50,000 (1)

8. Average cost of repairs per condo unit: $21,040 (1)

9. Average cost of repairs per co-op unit: $34,000 (1)

When buying a condo:

1. Read the Property Disclosure Statement

2. Read the Engineering report

3. Read the meeting minutes to find out what repairs have been made.

4. Use a home inspector with an engineering background (P-Eng) for condos.

5. Check if the building has been rain screened

6. If possible, check the history of the other buildings from the same developer to see if they have a history of leaking

    

Sources:

- Conceptual Reference Database for Building Envelope Research *(1)
- Leaky condo crisis far from over – Vancouver Sun July 2008
- The Barrett Report on Leaky Condos
- HPO Managing Strata Repairs FAQ
- HPO Owner of Leaky Homes

- HOMEOWNER PROTECTION ACT RESPONSIBILITIES TRANSFERRED

- Coalition of Leaky Condo Owners - Only 1 new entry since 2009

- Leaky Condos Did The Buyer Know?

- ABM Environmental - Leaky Condo Mold

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What do Vancouver’s October Real Estate Stats Mean To You? 

Note: Prices have been falling since April/May.

Stats At A Glance

To read the full report, Click on Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's October Media package.

Things to note

• Sales in October were 28.5% below the 10 year sales average, while Sept sales were 41.6% below the 10 year sales average so we are trending in the right direction.

• The Benchmark price has fallen 3.4% since it peaked in May

• 11% of all homes on the market in October sold compared to 8% in September and 19% in March.

What does it mean?

People in the Vancouver real estate market have been used to 7-10% per year increases in their home value. That's no longer true.  Home prices for Townhomes peaked in April.  Prices for Detached and Apartement's peaked in May.

Different areas of the city are experiencing different amounts of drops.  For example, Detached Homes on the Westside have declined by 8.6%, while Richmond has declined 65% since the peak.

Different types of homes are experiencing different amounts of drops.  For example, Detached Homes are down 4.1% on average, while Townhomes and Apartments are only down 2.9% since the peak. 

For Buyers:

Prices have been going down since June and I expect for them to go down slowly in the foreseeable future.  

I'm seeing price reductions daily.  This should create a few good bargains if you know what you are looking for.  Contact your Realtor® or contact me if you don't have one as you will want to know what's on the market and which of the one's you like has changed their price as soon as they do.

For Sellers:

Homes in Greater Vancouver are taking 62 days on average to sell, which is up from 47 days last month.  You are going to have to present your home well, make your home available and price your home correctly.  

Home prices are slowly falling.  Those who reduce first get an advantage of looking lower than their competitors, which should in turn help to sell your home. If you haven't had a Competitive Market Analysis (AKA a Comparative Market Analysis or a CMA), done in the last 30 days, you need to get a fresh one done. I'd be happy to help with that if you don't currently have a Realtor®. Just fill in my my Free Home Evaluation form.  

Overpriced = Overlooked 

Reducing your price as the market goes down is called 'Chasing the Market'. When you do that, you are most likely going to have to settle for less than you would if you had priced your home correctly in the first place and it will take longer to sell.

For people who have both a home to sell and one to buy:  

It's the net between the two transactions that matters.  If you are moving up, the % decrease in the more expensive home will be more money than the % decrease in you have to take on your current home. Don't get caught up in trying to win on both sides of the transaction as it rarely happens.  

If you price your current home sharply, stage it beautifully and have a Realtor® market it properly, you should still be able to sell your property in less time than the average.  

Start looking for your new home right away so you’re not caught up in the 'I have to have a new home today' syndrome and so you know what your net will probably be.  

Why is this happening now?  

Please see What do Vancouver's September Real Estate Stats mean to you? for an overview of why this is happening.

Will prices continue to drop and by how much?

No one knows for sure, but as long as people don't have to sell, they have jobs, the interest rates stay stable and more people want to move to Vancouver, the prices will eventually go up again.  

The BCREA forecasts sales down 9.8% in 2012 but up 8.3% in 2013 and that prices will decline by 7.6%... "largely the result of luxury home sales returning to more normal levels after an unusually active 2011" - Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist . 

My personal opinion is that housing prices will drop between 3-8% in the next year depending on the type of home and where it is located.  I don't see any economic reasons to realistically expect 10% or greater drops in prices.  

This Months Further Reading

How House Prices Go Depends On Demographics - Financial Post - Oct 30

Canada Housing Market Crash Won't Be Like U.S., CIBC Economist Says - Huffington Post - Oct 30

Canada’s housing market: is it a cooling? Is it a crash? - Macleans - Oct 31 - Very good article

Our debt isn’t like their debt - Financial Post - Oct 30

Vancouver home sales to slip - Globe and Mail - Oct 26

BC Home Sales Forecast to Grow in 2013 - BCREA Oct 26

If you want to know what your home is worth in today’s market and you don't currently have a Realtor®, fill in my Free Home Evaluation form or give me a call.

If you have any questions or if I can help in any way, please give me a call, drop me an email.  

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